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贷款攻略 国内宏观经济 【目录】 《国际经济评论》2017年第5期(总第131期)
【目录】 《国际经济评论》2017年第5期(总第131期)
摘要:中国重大结构性改革方向专辑王勇本文从国有企业与民营企业在中国的上、下游产业链上的行业分布的变化入手,根据作者所提出的“垂直结构”理论,解释为何中国国企和民企的相对利润率呈

中国重大结构性改革方向专辑

王勇

本文从国有企业与民营企业在中国的上、下游产业链上的行业分布的变化入手,根据作者所提出的“垂直结构”理论,解释为何中国国企和民企的相对利润率呈现一波三折的态势,并且分析这个过程中国企与民企之间的互动关系。作者认为,2008年国际金融危机以来,外需相对下降,由民营企业主导的下游部门的出口受到很大抑制,导致下游部门对于某些关键的由国有企业垄断的上游产业的引致需求也随之下降,进而引起上游国企的利润大幅下降,并且导致上游产业中僵尸企业的比重高于下游产业中僵尸企业的比重。基于上述“垂直结构”的逻辑,如果不尽快对上游国企进行改革,那么随着劳动力成本、土地成本的不断提高,人民币的升值,对于下游的民营企业而言,上游国企垄断的金融、能源等中间服务与中间产品的高昂成本将可能会成为压垮下游民营企业的最后一根稻草。如果下游民营企业被压垮,那么上游国企本身的盈利能力也会降低,进而拖垮整体经济的增长。因此,国企改革刻不容缓并且应该循因施策,认清当前国企改革与1990年代国企改革的关键差异,把控好国企改革的速度和次序;应引入竞争机制,降低上游产业进入壁垒,打破国企行政垄断;适应市场环境调整上游国有企业的产能结构,并且需要逐渐剥离国有企业的政策性负担。

关键词:国有企业垂直结构民营企业新结构经济学

Vertical Structure of State-OwnedEnterprise Reform

Wang Yong

The globalfinancialcrisis in 2008dampened external demand for products of China’s downstream industriesdominated private enterprises. Consequently, demand for products and servicesof the country’s upstream industries, dominated by monopolistic SOEs, alsoplunged, leading to sharp declines in those State firms’ profitability. As aresult, many firms had becomezombieenterprises and the proportion of zombiefirms in upstream industries is higher than that in downstream sectors. Givensuch a vertical structure, upstream SOEs must be reformed as soon as possible;otherwise they would eventually choke off growth of downstream private firms ascosts of labor and land keep rising. Stagnation of downstream private sectorswould in turn hurt upstream SOEs and would slow overall growth. Policymakersshould be fully aware of the difference between the current SOE reform and thatcarried out in late 1990s. In the current reform, the key is to put a competition-orientedmechanism in place, break the administrative monopoly of SOEs, and lower thebarriers for entry into upstream industries.

刘守英

土地制度是中国政治经济制度的基础性安排。过去40年,土地制度的独特安排与变革是中国经济高速增长与结构变革的发动机,由此形成的“以地谋发展模式”又成为拖累经济转型的重要制度性障碍。随着经济增长进入中高速增长平台,结构变革转向城乡互动,土地制度的不适应性凸显,必须深化土地制度改革,告别以地谋发展,以土地结构优化促进结构改革,推进以集体地权制度和宅基地制度为核心的农村土地改革。

关键词:土地制度改革经济发展以地谋发展

China’s Two-Stage Land Reform

Liu Shouying

Land tenure system constitutes China’sbasic political andeconomicinstitution. Over the past 40 years, the evolutionof China’s unique institutional arrangement of land has propelled

China’s rapid economic growth andstructural transformation. But the ensuing land-dependent growth model has alsobecome an important institutional impediment to the country’s further economictransformation. As China’s economic growth slows, its economic structuraltransformation will increasingly hinge on interaction between the rural andurban areas. The current land system must be reformed to eliminate thecountry’s dependence on land for economic growth. In Particular, China needs tocatalyze economic structural transformation through improving its land usestructure. It also needs to push forward rural land reform centered oncollectively-owned land and homestead.

钟正生张璐

本文以中国改革开放的经济背景为轴,回顾总结了中国金融改革的历史进程。2008年国际金融危机后,中国经济改革在稳增长的内在诉求下推进缓慢,而金融改革却因利率市场化闸门的开启而大踏步地向前,但也逐渐埋下了当前种种金融乱象的根源。而当前的种种金融乱象,无疑是目前制约金融改革走向深入的一层枷锁。因此,推进“金融去杠杆”、整治金融乱象,从而为金融改革的进一步深入创造条件,更需着眼经济改革,着力于中国经济增长方式的转变,着力于打破国企的预算软约束,着力于民间投资活力的激发培育。结合中国改革开放以来四次应对和处理“外部失衡”的经验,以及1990年代亚洲金融危机所留下的深刻教训,我们认为,“经济改革-金融改革-金融开放”由急到缓地协同推进,是身处经济转型的关键节点、金融市场化尚未全然理顺的改革阶段的中国,更加理性与稳妥的选择。

关键词:金融改革经济改革金融开放

China’s Financial Reform: Experience,Dilemma and Future Development

Zhong Zhengsheng and Zhang Lu

Based on the economic background of China’sreform and opening up, this article summarizes the country’s historical processof financial reform. Against the backdrop of the global financial crisis in2008, China’s economic reform has fared slowly as the country tried tostabilize economic growth, but much headway has been made in its financial reformthanks to the marketization of interest rates. However, the robust financialreform has gradually brewed somefinancial risksand the current financialchaos is aconstraintfor further financial reform. Therefore, to promote"financial deleveraging" and solve the problem of financial chaos,China must focus on economic reform, transform its economic growth pattern,break SOE’s soft budgetconstraintand foster growth of privateinvestment.Based on China’s experiences in dealing with the problem of external imbalancesince 1978 and its legacy from the Asian financial crisis in the 1990s, webelieve that reform should be carried out gradually in the sequence of economicreform - financial reform - financial openness. Such a reform sequence is amore rational option for China to carry out its reform.

黄益平

近年来金融风险不停地在股票、房地产、债券、互联网金融和外汇等市场之间游走,表明中国经济已经进入金融风险高发期。而增长持续减速导致实体经济投资回报下降,催生大量的僵尸企业并推动金融风险的快速积累;同时杠杆率剧升,流动性充裕与投资机会不足同时并存;一些领域的金融创新比如互联网金融和影子银行在满足实体经济需求的同时,也制造了许多新的金融风险;而实施多年的“政府兜底”已经越来越难以为继。因此,防控系统性金融风险已经成为当前经济政策的重要目标之一。我们建议政府从三个方面入手:第一,宏观经济政策特别是货币政策应该高度关注金融风险,与宏观审慎监管政策配合,保持经济与金融的相对稳定。第二,放弃政府兜底,强化市场纪律,及时释放风险点,尽快处置僵尸企业与僵尸金融机构。第三,改革金融监管框架,改善政策协调,加强监管机构的独立性、专业性和权威性,一旦条件成熟走向混业监管,建议考虑采用双峰监管模式。

关键词:中国经济金融风险互联网金融影子银行宏观审慎监管政策

China’s Prevention of Systemic FinancialRisks

Huang Yiping

In recent years, financial risks have beenapparent in such fields as stock market, real estate sector, bond market,internet finance and foreign exchange market, indicating that China has becomevulnerable to rising financial risks. Meanwhile, its slower growth has led todeclining return on investment of the real economy, produced large numbers of"zombie enterprises", and accumulated more financial risks. Whilerising leverages, ample liquidity and lack of investment opportunities havebrought risks, some financial innovation activities, such as internet financeand shadow banking, have creatednewfinancial risks, although they have alsobenefited the real economy. Worse, it has become increasingly difficult for thegovernment to continue to provide guarantee for such risky financialinnovations. As a result, prevention of systemic financial risks has becomeChina’s major economic priority. We suggest that the government should attachutmost importance tofinancial riskswhen it carried out its macroeconomicpolicies, especially monetary policies. It should also make it clear that itwould not provide any guarantee for risk takers so that "zombieenterprises" can go bankrupt to resolve potential risks. It should also reformits financial regulatory framework, improve policy coordination, strengthenindependence, professionalism and authority of regulatory bodies, and adopt amixed regulatory mode.

解读中国的资本外逃

余永定肖立晟

中国的跨境资本近期出现大规模流出,但目前尚没有关于资本外逃的官方统计。本文通过分析国际收支平衡表和国际投资头寸表中各个项目的头寸状况,以及二者之间的差异,间接推测中国是否存在资本外逃及其规模大小。根据统计数据,累计的经常项目顺差和海外净资产增加额之间的缺口可以分解为两个子缺口。其一是经常项目顺差和资本净输出之间的缺口,即国际收支平衡表上的“误差与遗漏”。其二是从资本净输出到海外净资产形成之间的缺口。本文分析表明,与其他发达国家相比,中国误差与遗漏账户不仅规模庞大,而且与汇率预期密切相关,很大程度上反映了资本外逃的规模和方向。此外,尽管一些跨境资本是通过正规渠道合法流出,但是在海外的资金可能以各种形式逃避监管,没有形成海外资产累计。中国政府采取了一系列措施抑制资本外逃,这种政策完全正确。但是,资本外逃问题的解决还有赖于中国经济体制、金融体系和汇率体制改革的进一步深化。

关键词:资本外逃国际收支平衡表国际投资头寸表误差与遗漏账户

Estimation of China’s Capital Flight

Yu Yongding and Xiao Lisheng

Since 2014, China’s capital flight hasaccelerated, but there have been no official statistics of capital flightavailable. By analyzing China’s Balance of Payments (BoP) and InternationalInvestment Position (IIP) tables, this article tries to gauge the scale ofChina’s capital flight. In literature, the difference between current accountsurplus and the increase in net overseas assets over the same period of time isused as a proxy for capital flight. In reality, statistical errors andomissions also contribute to the difference. The difference between currentaccount surplus and increase in net foreign assets (NFA), which, in theory,represents total capital flight, can be divided into two parts. One is thedifference between current account surplus and net capital outflow (NCO), representedby Errors and Omissions (E&O) account in the balance of payments table. Theother is difference betweenNCOand the changes in NFA. The article argues thaterrors and omissions in the BoP table are mainly caused by capital flightrather than statistical inaccuracies. Compared with advanced economies, China’sE&O is not only large but also closely related to exchange rateexpectations. This implies that the errors and omissions are not white noise,but that they are mainly a result of capital flight. Besides, although thereare capitals that flow out of China legally and are not captured by errors andomissions account in the balance of payments table, they are capital flight innature and hence have failed to translate into overseas assets owned by Chineseresidents in the IIP table. The article discusses the “errors and omissions” inIIP table that are attributable to either statistical failures or capitalflight.

Now the Chinese government has taken aseries of actions to curb capital flight, which is certainly correct andhelpful. However, the fundamental solution lies in the deepening of reforms ofChina’s economic system, financial system and exchange rate regime.

21世纪海上丝绸之路建设:现状、机遇、问题与应对

何帆朱鹤张骞

21世纪海上丝绸之路是中国全方位对外开放战略新格局的重要组成部分,契合中国和东南亚、南亚及非洲等国家的共同需求。本文对海上丝绸之路沿线地区的典型经济现状、与中国的合作机遇以及存在的问题进行了深入研究。发现中国与地区各国在产业投资、基建投资、资源开发与合作、境外经贸园区和海上经济等五个领域存在更深层次的合作机遇,但存在执行主体不协调、金融支持不足和缺少完备人才队伍等三个方面的突出问题。最后,结合中国与地区各国的国情与共同需求,就加强海上丝绸之路建设提出若干建议。

关键词:“一带一路”倡议21世纪海上丝绸之路基础设施金融支持

The21stCenturyMaritimeSilkRoad:

CurrentSituation,Opportunities,Challenges and Solutions

He Fan, Zhu He and Zhang Qian

The 21st Century Maritime Silk Road is animportant part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative to build anewpattern ofall-round opening-up; it caters to the common appeals of China and countries inSoutheast Asia, South Asia, and Africa. This article analyzes the economicstatus quo of countries involved in the maritime initiative, opportunities forcooperation among China and those countries, and challenges that could affecttheir cooperation. It finds that China and those countries can carry outdeeper-level cooperation in five areas: industrial investment, infrastructureinvestment, resource development and cooperation, overseas economic and tradeparks, and ocean economy. But it also finds that such cooperation faces somemajor challenges, such as lack of coordination, inadequate financial support,and lack of high-caliber personnel. It puts forward some suggestions for betterimplementing the initiative.

徐奇渊杨盼盼肖立晟

“一带一路”倡议已进入具体推进、落地阶段。在此过程中,“一带一路”沿线国家的投资需求巨大,但潜在风险也值得关注。本文提供了三个角度,对中国参与建设共赢、可持续的“一带一路”投融资机制提出了建议。第一,投资主体借力借势布局。中资银行业在非洲的布局分析,说明了中资金融机构的布局还可以利用现有国际金融中心之间的竞争关系,为拓展布局找到新空间。第二,绑定各方投资伙伴的利益。马歇尔计划特殊账户机制的启示,就是要将相关方的利益进行绑定,推动“一带一路”线上的双边合作、第三方合作。其三,对投资对象需要约法三章。以津巴布韦使用人民币提议为例,相关思考的启示是:投资对象国必须整肃金融纪律,改善营商环境,培育具有国际竞争力的有效产能。

关键词:一带一路投融资机制投资需求风险

Investment and Financing Mechanism for theBelt and Road Initiative: China’s Role

Xu Qiyuan, Yang Panpan and XiaoLisheng

The Belt and Road Initiative has enteredthe stage of implementation. In the process, the financing needs of countriesinvolved in the initiative are very large. Meanwhile, attention must be paid tothe potential risks in carrying out the initiative. This article provides threedimensions for rethinking how China can play a more effective role in theinvestment and financing mechanism of the initiative. First, Chinese banks cantake advantage of the competition among existing international financialcenters to expand their foothold in Africa or other regions. Second, interestsof investors and partners should be bundled together to facilitate bilateraland trilateral cooperation. Third, investee countries must obey certaindisciplines. They must tighten their fiscal discipline, improve theirbusiness-doing environment and foster internationally competitive industries.

刘东民李远芳熊爱宗高蓓

本文分析归纳了全球主要多边开发银行的战略目标、业务重点、成功经验和存在问题,在此基础上,提出了亚投行的四点战略定位:尊重发展中国家需求的开发银行;具有良好财务可持续性的开发银行;坚守高标准的开发银行;重视国际合作的开发银行。同时,本文提出了亚投行在业务模式上的六点创新建议:将城市化作为基础设施投资的重点方向之一;以国际基础设施投资公司模式推动项目建设;建立离岸人民币境外投资基金;以“经济特区”模式推进城市化建设和跨境园区建设;实施绿色金融;在亚投行旗下设立亚洲金融公司,实施市场化运作。

关键词:多边开发银行亚投行全球金融治理

Strategic Targets and Business Innovationof the AIIB

Liu Dongmin, Li Yuanfang, Xiong Aizong andGao Bei

This article analyses the strategictargets, business focuses, successful experiences and existing problems of the world’smajor multilateral development banks before suggesting four strategic targetsfor the AIIB: respecting needs of developing countries, maintaining soundfinancialsustainability, sticking to international high standards, andattaching importance to international cooperation. The article also put forwardsix suggestions for the business model of the AIIB. First, it should makeurbanization a priority in its infrastructure investment; second, it shouldadopt the international infrastructure investment company model to facilitateits project construction; third, it should set up offshore RMB overseasinvestmentfund; fourth, it should adopt the special economic zone model topromote urbanization and construction of cross-bordereconomicand trade park projects;last but not least, it should set up an Asian finance corporation to pursuemarket-oriented operation.

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